The Kuznets curve in Brazil, 1850-2010

  1. María Gómez León 1
  1. 1 Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
    info

    Universidad Carlos III de Madrid

    Madrid, España

    ROR https://ror.org/03ths8210

Journal:
Revista de Historia Económica = Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History

ISSN: 0212-6109

Year of publication: 2021

Year: 39

Issue: 1

Pages: 37-61

Type: Article

DOI: 10.1017/S0212610920000166 DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR

More publications in: Revista de Historia Económica = Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History

Sustainable development goals

Abstract

Using social tables and modern household surveys, this article explores Brazil’s income distribution from a historical perspective (1850-2010), examining its relationship with economic development and the factors driving inequality changes. It shows that Brazil’s inequality was not always high, but rather followed a Kuznets curve, increasing from the early 20th century, reaching a high plateau between the 1970s and 1990s and declining thereafter. Notably, results highlight the importance of both economic and political factors for enabling the completion of the second Kuznets curve phase.

€ View funding

Funding information

I thank the referees and the editors of this journal for their valuable comments. This research was developed with the financial support of the Universidad Carlos III de Madrid through a PIF fellowship. Earlier versions were presented at the Conference on Latin American Inequality in the Long Run, IDB-INTAL (Dec. 2014), the European Historical Economics Society Conference, University of Pisa (2015), and the Global Economics and Management Seminar, University of Groningen (Sept. 2015). Special thanks are due to Pablo Astorga, Regina Grafe, Alejandra

Funders

Bibliographic References

  • ABSELL, C. D., and TENA-JUNGUITO, A. (2016): «Brazilian Export Growth and Divergence in the Tropics during the Nineteenth Century». Journal of Latin American Studies 48(4), pp. 677-706.
  • ACEMOGLU, D., JOHNSON, S., and ROBINSON, J. (2001): «The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation ». American Economic Review 91(5), pp. 1369-1401.
  • ACEMOGLU, D., JOHNSON, S., and ROBINSON, J. (2002): «Reversal of Fortune: Geography and Institutions in the Making of the Modern World Income Distribution». The Quarterly Journal of Economics 117(4), pp. 1231-1294.
  • AHLUWALIA, M. S. (1976): «Inequality, Poverty and Development». Journal of Development Economics 3(4), pp. 307-342.
  • ALVAREDO, F., CHANCEL, L., PIKETTY, T., SAEZ, E., and ZUCMAN, G. (eds) (2018): World Inequality Report 2018. Cambridge, Mass: Belknap Press.
  • ANAND, S., and KANBUR, S. R. (1993): «Inequality and Development a Critique». Journal of Development Economics 41(1), pp. 19-43.
  • ARNOLD, J., and JALLES, J. (2014): «Dividing the Pie in Brazil: Income Distribution, Social Policies and the New Middle Class». OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1105, OECD Publishing.
  • ARROYO ABAD, L. (2013): «Persistent Inequality? Trade, Factor Endowments, and Inequality in Republican Latin America». The Journal of Economic History 73(1), pp. 38-78.
  • ARROYO ABAD, L., and ASTORGA, P. (2017): «Latin American Earnings Inequality in the Long Run». Cliometrica 11(3), pp. 349-374.
  • ASTORGA, P. (2010): «A Century of Economic Growth in Latin America». Journal of Development Economics 92(2), pp. 232-243.
  • ASTORGA, P. (2017): «Real Wages and Skill Premiums in Latin America, 1900-2011». Revista de Historia Económica–Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History 35(3), pp. 319-353.
  • ATKINSON, A. B., HASELL, J., MORELLI, S., and ROSER, M. (2017): «Chartbook of Economic Inequality». Available at https://www.chartbookofeconomicinequality.com.
  • BAER, W. (2008): The Brazilian Economy: Growth and Development, 6th edn. London: Lynne Rienner Publishers.
  • BARRO, R. J. (2000): «Inequality and Growth in a Panel of Countries». Journal of Economic Growth 5(1), pp. 5-32.
  • BARROS, R., CARVALHO, M., FRANCO, S., and MENDOÇA, R. (2010): «Markets, the State, and the Dynamics of Inequality in Brazil». in L. F. LÓPEZ CALVA, and N. LUSTIG (eds), Declining Inequality in Latin America: A Decade of Progress? Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, pp. 134-175.
  • BÉRTOLA, L. (2005): «50 años de la curva de Kuznets: Crecimiento económico y distribución del ingreso en Uruguay y otras economías de nuevo asentamiento desde 1870». Investigaciones de Historia Económica 1(3), pp. 135-176.
  • BÉRTOLA, L., CASTELNOVO, C., REIS, E., and WILLEBALD, H. (2007): «Exploring the Distribution of Income in Brazil, 1839-1939». Primer Congreso Latinoamericano de Historia Económica (CLADHE I), Montevideo.
  • BÉRTOLA, L., CASTELNOVO, C., RODRÍGUEZ, J., and WILLEBALD, H. (2010): «Between the Colonial Heritage and the First Globalization Boom: On Income Inequality in the Southern Cone». Revista de Historia Económica–Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History 28(2), 307-341.
  • BULMER-THOMAS, V. (2003): The Economic History of Latin America since Independence, 2nd edn. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • CACCIAMALI, M. (2011): «Brasil un caso reciente de crecimiento económico con distribución de la renta». Revista de Estudios Empresariales. Segunda Época 1, pp. 46-64
  • CAMPBELL, B. (2008): «Benchmarking Medieval Economic Development: England, Wales, Scotland, and Ireland, c. 12901». The Economic History Review 61(4), pp. 896-945.
  • CHACÓN, V. (1977): Estado e Povo no Brasil: As Experiências do Estado Novo e da Democracia Populista: 1937-1964. Rio de Janeiro: José Olympo.
  • COATSWORTH, J. H. (2005): «Structures, Endowments, and Institutions in the Economic History of Latin America». Latin American Research Review 40(3), pp. 3-39.
  • CÔRTES NERI, M. (2010): A Nova Classe Média. O Lado Brilhante dos Pobres. Rio de Janeiro: Fundação Getulio Vargas.
  • DEAN, W. (1992): «La Economía Brasileña, 1870-1930». in L. BETHELL (ed.), Historia de América Latina (Vol. 10). Barcelona: Editiorial Crítica, pp. 333-369.
  • DEININGER, K., and SQUIRE, L. (1998): «New Ways of Looking at Old Issues: Inequality and Growth». Journal of Development Economics 57(2), pp. 259-287.
  • ENGERMAN, S., and SOKOLOFF, K. (1997): «Inequality, Institutions, and Differential Paths of Growth Among New World Economies». in S. HABER (ed.), How Latin America Fell Behind. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, pp. 260-304.
  • ENGERMAN, S., and SOKOLOFF, K. (2000): «Institutions, Factor Endowments, and Paths of Development in the New World». Journal of Economic Perspectives 14(3), pp. 217-232.
  • ENGERMAN, S., and SOKOLOFF, K. (2002): «Factor Endowments, Inequality, and Paths of Development among New World Economies». Economía 3(1), pp. 41-88.
  • FEINSTEIN, C. (1988): «The Rise and Fall of the Williamson Curve». The Journal of Economic History 48(3), pp. 699-729.
  • FERREIRA, F. H., LEITE, P. G., and LITCHFIELD, J. A. (2008): «The Rise and Fall of Brazilian Inequality: 1981-2004». Macroeconomic Dynamics 12(Supp. 2), pp. 199-230.
  • FERREIRA, F., MESSINA, J., RIGOLINI, J., LÓPEZ CALVA, L., LUGO, M., and VAKIS, R. (2013): Economic Mobility and the Rise of the Latin American Middle Class. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank.
  • FRANKEMA, E. (2009): Has Latin America Always Been Unequal? A Comparative Study of Asset and Income Inequality in the Long Twentieth Century (Vol. 3). Leiden: Brill.
  • FRANKEMA, E. (2010): «Reconstructing Labor Income Shares in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico, 1870-2000». Revista de Historia Económica–Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History 28(2), pp. 343-374.
  • FURTADO, C. (1965): La dialectica del desarrollo: Diagnóstico de la crisis del Brasil. México: Fondo de Cultura Económica.
  • GASPARINI, L., CRUCES, G., TORNAROLLI, L., and MEJÍA, D. (2011): «Recent Trends in Income Inequality in Latin America». Economia 11(2), pp. 147-201.
  • GOLDSMITH, R. (1986): Brasil 1850-1984: Desenvolvimento Financeiro sob um Século de Inflação. Rio de Janeiro: Banco Bamerindus do Brasil.
  • GÓMEZ LEÓN, M. (2019): «The Rise of the Middle Class in Brazil, 1850-1950». European Review of Economic History 23(4), pp. 482-498.
  • GÓMEZ LEÓN, M., and DE JONG, H. J. (2019): «Inequality in Turbulent Times: Income Distribution in Germany and Britain, 1900-50». The Economic History Review 72 (3), pp. 1073-1098.
  • GONZAGA, G., MENEZES FILHO, N., and TERRA, C. (2006): «Trade Liberalization and the Evolution of Skill Earnings Differentials in Brazil». Journal of International Economics 68(2), pp. 345-367.
  • IGLESIAS, F. (1994): Breve Historia Contemporánea del Brasil. México: Fondo de Cultura Económica.
  • KANBUR, R. (2011): «Does Kuznets Still Matter? Paper written for a Festschrift in honor of Montek Ahluwalia». September. Revised version published in S. KOCHHAR (ed.) 2012. Policy-Making for Indian Planning: Essays on Contemporary Issues in Honor of Montek S. Ahluwalia. London, Academic Foundation Press, pp. 115-128.
  • KLEIN, H. S. (1995): «A Participação Política no Brasil do Século XIX: os Votantes de São Paulo em 1880». Dados-Revista de Ciências Sociais 38(3), pp. 527-544.
  • KUZNETS, S. (1955): «Economic Growth and Income Inequality». The American Economic Review 45(1), pp. 1-28.
  • LAKNER, C., and MILANOVIC, B. (2013): «Global Income Distribution: From the Fall of the Berlin Wall to the Great Recession». Policy Research Working Paper 6719, Washington, D.C.: The World Bank.
  • LEFF, N. (1969): «Long-Term Brazilian Economic Development». The Journal of Economic History 29(3), pp. 473-493.
  • LEFF, N. (1982): Underdevelopment and Development in Brazil (Vol. I): Economic Structure and Change, 1822-1947. London: George Allen & Unwin.
  • LEWIS, W. A. (1954): «Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labour». The Manchester School 22(2), pp. 139-191.
  • LINDERT, P. H., and WILLIAMSON, J. G. (1982): «Revising England’s Social Tables 1688-1812». Explorations in Economic History 19, pp. 385-408.
  • LINDERT, P. H., and WILLIAMSON, J. G. (1983): «Reinterpreting Britain’s Social Tables». Explorations in Economic History 20, pp. 94-109.
  • LINDERT, P. H., and WILLIAMSON, J. G. (2016): «Unequal Gains: American Growth and Inequality since 1700». Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  • LOBO, E. (1978): História do Rio de Janeiro: Do Capital Comercial ao Capital Industrial e Financeiro. Rio de Janeiro: Instituto Brasileiro de Mercado de Capitais.
  • LOBO, E., CANAVARROS, O., FERES, Z., GONÇALVES, S., and BARBOSA MADUREIRA, L. (1971): «Evolução dos Preços e do Padrão de Vida no Rio de Janeiro 1820-1930». Revista Brasileira de Economía 25(4), pp. 235-266.
  • LUNA, F. V., and KLEIN, H. S. (2006): Brazil since 1980. New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • LUNA, F. V., and KLEIN, H. S. (2014): The Economic and Social History of Brazil since 1889. New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • MAINWARING, S. (1986): «The Transition to Democracy in Brazil». Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs 28(1), pp. 149-180.
  • MILANOVIC, B. (2006): «An Estimate of Average Income and Inequality in Byzantium around Year 1000». Review of Income and Wealth 52(3), pp. 449-470.
  • MILANOVIC, B. (2016): Global Inequality: A New Approach for the Age of Globalization. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
  • MILANOVIC, B. (2018): «Towards an Explanation of Inequality in Premodern Societies: The Role of Colonies, Urbanization, and High Population Density». The Economic History Review 71(4), pp. 1029-1047.
  • MILANOVIC, B. (2019): Capitalism, Alone: The Future of the System That Rules the World. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
  • MILANOVIC, B., LINDERT, P. H., and WILLIAMSON, J. G. (2010): «Pre-Industrial Inequality». The Economic Journal 121(551), pp. 255-272.
  • MONASTERIO, L. (2010): «Brazilian Spatial Dynamics in the Long Term (1872-2000) «Path Dependency» or «Reversal of Fortune»?». Journal of Geographical Systems 12(1), pp. 51-67.
  • MOREIRA CUNHA, A., and DA SILVA BICHARA, J. (2004): «Cambio o continuismo: Una interpretación de la política económica del gobierno de Lula». América Latina Hoy 37, pp. 39-61.
  • MORLEY, S. A. (2001): The Income Distribution Problem in Latin America and the Caribbean (Vol. 65). Santiago de Chile: UN, ECLAC.
  • NUNES, N. (2003): «A Experiência Eleitoral em Campos dos Goytacazes (1870-1889): Freqüência Eleitoral e Perfil da População Votante». Dados- Revista de Ciências Sociais 46(2), pp. 311-343.
  • O’ROURKE, K. H., and WILLIAMSON, J. G. (1999): Globalization and History: The Evolution of a Nineteenth-Century Atlantic Economy. Cambridge: The MIT Press.
  • O’ROURKE, K. H., TAYLOR, A. M., and WILLIAMSON, J. G. (1996): «Land, Labor, and the Wage-Rental Ratio: Factor Price Convergence in the Late Nineteenth Century». International Economic Review 37(3), pp. 499-530.
  • OWENSBY, P. (1999): Intimate Ironies. Modernity and the Making of a Middle-Class Lives in Brazil. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
  • PEREIRA, T. A. Z. (2017): «The Cotton Trade and Brazilian Foreign Commerce during the Industrial Revolution». Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, PhD dissertation.
  • PIKETTY, T. (2014): Capital in the Twenty-First Century. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
  • PRADOS DE LA ESCOSURA, L. (2007): «Inequality and Poverty in Latin America: A Long-Run Exploration». in T. HATTON, K. O’ROURKE, and A. M. TAYLOR (eds), The New Comparative Economic History. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, pp. 291-315.
  • PRADOS DE LA ESCOSURA, L. (2008). «Inequality, Poverty and the Kuznets Curve in Spain, 1850-2000». European Review of Economic History 12(3), pp. 287-324.
  • RAVALLION, M., and CHEN, S. (2003): «Measuring Pro-Poor Growth». Economics Letters 78 (1), pp. 93-99.
  • RODRÍGUEZ WEBER, J. E. (2017): «The Political Economy of Income Inequality in Chile Since 1850» in L. BÉRTOLA, and J. WILLIAMSON (eds), Has Latin American Inequality Changed Direction: Looking over the Long-Run. Montevideo: Springer, pp. 43-64.
  • SAEZ, E., and ZUCMAN, G. (2019): The Triumph of Injustice: How the Rich Dodge Taxes and How to Make Them Pay. New York: W.W. Norton.
  • SÁNCHEZ ALONSO, B. (2007): «The Other Europeans: Immigration into Latin American and the International Labour Market (1870-1930)». Revista de Historia Económica– Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History 25(3), pp. 395-426.
  • SKIDMORE, T. E. (1967): Politics in Brazil 1930-1964: An Experiment in Democracy. New York: Oxford University Press.
  • SOUZA, P. H., and MEDEIROS, M. (2015): «Top Income Shares and Inequality in Brazil, 1928-2012». Journal of the Brazilian Sociological Society 1(1), pp. 119-132.
  • STOLZ, Y., BATEN, J., and BOTELHO, T. (2013): «Growth Effects of Nineteenth-Century Mass Migrations: «Fome Zero» for Brazil?». European Review of Economic History 17(1), pp. 95-121.
  • SUMMERHILL, W. R. (2005): «Big Social Savings in a Small Laggard Economy: Railroad-Led Growth in Brazil». The Journal of Economic History 65(1), pp. 72-102.
  • VAN ZANDEN, J. L. (1995): «Tracing the Beginning of the Kuznets Curve: Western Europe during the Early Modern Period». Economic History Review 48(4), pp. 1-23.
  • WILLIAMSON, J. G. (1999): «Real Wages, Inequality and Globalization in Latin America before 1940». Revista de Historia Económica 17(special issue), pp. 101-142.
  • WILLIAMSON, J. G. (2002): «Land, Labor, and Globalization in the Third World, 1870-1940». The Journal of Economic History 62(1), pp. 55-85.
  • WILLIAMSON, J. G. (2010): «Five Centuries of Latin American Income Inequality». Revista de Historia Económica–Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History 28 (2), pp. 227-252.
  • WOLFE, J. (1993): Working Women, Working Men: São Paulo and the Rise of Brazil’s Industrial Working Class, 1900-1955. Durham, NC: Duke University Press.
Data source: Dialnet