Adaptación de la agricultura a escenarios de cambio global. Aplicación de métodos participativos en la cuenca del río Júcar (España)

Bibliographic References

• Adger, W.N. (2006). “Vulnerability”. Global Environmental Change, 16(3), 268-281. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.02.006.
• Alcamo, J., Flörke, M. & Märker, M. (2007). “Future long-term changes in global water resources driven by socio-economic and climatic changes”. Hydrological Science Journal, 52(2), 247-275. http://dx.doi.org/10.1623/hysj.52.2.247.
• Alcamo, J. (2008). Environmental futures: The practice of environmental scenario analysis. Future long-term changes in global water resources driven by socioeconomic and climatic changes. Amsterdam, Elsevier.
• Assimacopoulos, D., Kampragkou, E., Andreu, J., Bifulco, C., De Carli, A. & De Stefano, L. (2014). “Future drought impact and vulnerability. Case study scale”. DROUGHT-R&SPI Technical Report No. 20.
• Berbel, J., Gutiérrez-Martín, C., Rodríguez-Díaz, J.A., Camacho, E. & Montesinos, P. (2015). “Literature Review on Rebound Effect of Water Saving Measures and Analysis of a Spanish Case Study”. Water Resources Management, 29(3), 663-678. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0839-0.
• Berkhout, F., Hertin, J. & Jordan, A. (2002). “Socio-economic futures in climate change impact assessment: Using scenarios as ‘learning machines’”. Global Environmental Change, 12: 83-95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0959-3780(02)00006-7.
• Bhave, A.G., Mishra, A. & Raghuwanshi, N.S. (2013). “A combined bottom–up and top– down approach for assessment of climate change adaptation options”. Journal of Hydrology, 518(A), 150-161. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.08.039.
• Bojovic, D., Bonzanigo, L. Giuponni, C. & Maziotis, A. (2015). “Online participation in climate change adaptation: A case study of agricultural adaptation measures in Northern Italy”, Journal of Environmental Management, 157, 8-19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.04.001.
• Bonzanigo, L., Bojovic, D., Giuponni, C. & Maziotis, A. (2015). “Agricultural policy informed by farmers’ adaptation experience to climate change in Veneto, Italy”. Regional Environmental Change, 16(1), 245-258. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0750-5.
• Carpenter, S.R., Bennett, E.M. & Peterson, G.D. (2006). “Scenarios for ecosystem services: An overview”, Ecology and Society, 11(1), 29. Retrieved from: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol11/iss1/art29.
• Chaudhury, M., Vervoort, J., Kristjanson, P.M., Ericksen, P. & Ainslie, A. (2013). “Participatory scenarios as a tool to link science and policy on food security under climate change in East Africa”. Regional Environmental Change, 13(2), 389-398. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-012-0350-1.
• Christensen, O.B., Gutowski, W.J., Nikulin, G. & Legutke, S. (2014). CORDEX Archive design. Retrieved from: http://cordex.dmi.dk/.
• Cohen, S., Neilson, D., Smith, S., Neale, T., Taylor, B., Barton, M., Merritt, W., Alila, Y., Shepherd, P., Mcneill, R., Tansey, J., Carmichael, J. & Langsdale, S. (2006). “Learning with local help: Expanding the dialogue on climate change and water management in the Okanagan region, British Columbia, Canada”. Climatic Change, 75(3), 331-358. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-6336-6.
• COM. (2013). An EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change, European Commission.
• De Stefano, L., Hernández Mora, N., Iglesias, A. & Sánchez, B. (2014). “Water for rice farming and biodiversity: Exploring choices for adaptation to climate change in Doñana, southern Spain”. En Stucker, D. & López-Gun, E. (Eds.): Adaptation to Climate Change through Water Resources Management: Capacity, Equity, and Sustainability. Oxford, UK: Routledge / Earthscan.
• Ekström, M., Kuruppu, N., Wilby, R.L., Fowler, H.J., Chiew, F.H.S., Dessai, S. & Young, W.J. (2013). “Examination of climate risk using a modified uncertainty matrix framework - Applications in the water sector”. Global Environmental Change, 23(1), 11-129. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.11.003.
• Faysse, N., Rinaudo, J.D., Bento, S., Richard-Ferroudji, A., Errahj, M., Varanda, M., Imache, A., Dionnet, M., Rollin, D., Garin, P., Kuper, M., Maton, L. & Montginoul, M. (2014). “Participatory analysis for adaptation to climate change in Mediterranean agricultural systems: Possible choices in process design”. Regional Environmental Change, 14(s1), 57-70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-012-0362-x.
• Girard, C., Rinaudo, J.D., Pulido-Velázquez, M., Pagé, C. & Caballero, Y. (2015a). “Integrating top–down and bottom–up approaches to design global change adaptation at the river basin scale”. Global Environmental Change, 34, 132-146.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.07.002.
• Girard, C., Rinaudo, J.D., Pulido-Velázquez, M. & Caballero, Y. (2015b). “An interdisciplinary modelling framework for selecting adaptation measures at the river basin scale in a global change scenario”. Environmental Modelling and Software, 69, 42-54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.02.023.
• García de Jalón, S., Iglesias, A., Cunningham, R. & Pérez Díaz, J.I., (2014). “Building resilience to water scarcity in southern Spain: A case study of rice farming in Doñana protected wetlands”. Regional Environmental Change, 14(3), 1229-1242. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0569-5.
• González del Tánago, I., Urquijo, J., Blauhut, V., Villarroya, F. & De Stefano, L. (2016). “Learning from experience: A systematic review of assessments of vulnerability to drought”. Natural Hazards, 80(2), 951-973. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-2006-1.
• Gudmundsson, L., Bremnes, J.B., Haugen, J.E. & Engen-Skaugen, T. (2012). “Technical Note: Downscaling RCM precipitation to the station scale using statistical transformations – a comparison of methods”. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3383-3390. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3383-2012.
• Hallegatte, S. (2009). “Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change”. Global Environmental Change, 19(2), 240-247. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.12.003.
• Hatzilacou, D., Kallis, G., Mexa, A., Coccosis, H. & Svoronou, E. (2007). “Scenario workshops: A useful method for participatory water resources planning”. Water Resources Research, 43, W06414. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006WR004878.
• Iglesias, A., Garrote, L., Quiroga, S. & Moneo, M. (2012) “A regional comparison of the effects of climate change on agricultural crops in Europe”. Climatic Change, 112(1), 29-46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0338-8.
• Iglesias, A. & Garrote, L. (2015). “Adaptation strategies for agricultural water management under climate change in Europe”. Agricultural Water Management, 155, 113-124. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2015.03.014.
• Iglesias, A., Sánchez, B., Garrote, L. & López, I. (2015). “Towards adaptation to climate change: Water for rice in the coastal wetlands of Doñana, Southern Spain”. Water Resources Management, 31(2), 629-645. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11269-015-0995-x.
• IPCC. (2014a). “Annex XX: Glossary”. J., Agard, E.L.F., Schipper, J., Birkmann, M., et al. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. NY, USA: Cambridge University Press.
• IPCC. (2014b). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri & L.A. Meyer (Eds.). Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC.
• JCRMO (Junta central de regantes de la Mancha Oriental). (2016). “Memoria 2016”. Retrieved from: http://www.jcrmo.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Memoria_2016.pdf.
• Kok, K., Hesselbjerg Christensen, J., Sloth Madsen, M., Pedde, S., Gramberger, M., Jäger, J. & Carter, T. (2015). “Evaluation of existing climate and socio-economic scenarios including a detailed description of the final selection”. IMPRESSIONS. Retrieved from: http://impressions-project.eu.
• Krysanova, V., Dickens, C. & Timmerman, J. et al. (2010). “Cross-comparison of climate change adaptation strategies across large river Basins in Europe, Africa and Asia”. Waterer Resource Management, 24(14), 4121-4160. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11269-010-9650-8.
• Kwakkel, J.H., Haasnoot, M. & Walker, W.E. (2015). “Developing Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways: A computer-assisted approach for developing adaptive strategies for a deeply uncertain world”. Climatic Change, 132(3), 373-386. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1210-4.
• Lempert, R.J., Groves, D.G., Popper, S.W. & Bankes, S.C. (2006). “A general, analytic method for generating robust strategies and narrative scenarios”. Management Science, 52(4), 514-528. http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1050.0472.
• Li, H., Sheffield, J. & Wood, E.F. (2010). “Bias correction of monthly precipitation and temperature fields from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 models using equidistant quantile matching”. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (1984–2012), 115(D10). http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012882.
• Lim, B., Burton, I., Malone, E. & Huq, S. (2004). Adaptation Policy Frameworks for Climate Change: Developing Strategies, Policies and Measures, Cambridge University Press.
• Malekpour, S., Brown, R.R. & de Haan, F.J. 2015. “Strategic planning of urban infrastructure for environmental sustainability: Understanding the past to intervene for the future”. Cities, 46, 67-75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2015.05.003.
• Mallampalli, V.R., Mavrommati, G., Thompson J., Duveneck M., Meyer, S., Ligmann-Zielinska, A., Gottschalk Druschke, C., Hychka, K., Kenney, M.A., Kok, K. & Borsuk, M.E. (2016). “Methods for translating narrative scenarios into quantitative assessments of land- use change”. Environmental Software and Modeling 82, 7-20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.04.011.
• March, H., Therond, O. & Leenhardt, D. (2012). “Water futures: Reviewing waterscenario analyses through an original interpretative framework”. Ecological Economics, 82, 126-137. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.07.006.
• Moore, S.S., Seavy, N.E. & Gerhart, M. (2013). Scenario planning for climate change adaptation. A guidance for resource managers. Point Blue Conservation Science and California Coastal Conservancy, California.
• O’Neill, B.C., Kriegler, E., Riahi, K., Ebi, K.L., Hallegatte, S., Carter, T.R., Mathur, R. & van Vuuren, D.P. (2014). “A new scenario framework for climate change research: The concept of shared socioeconomic pathways”. Climatic change, 122(3), 387-400. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0905-2.
• O’Neill, B.C., Kriegler, E., Ebi, K.L., Kemp-Benedict,E., Riahi, K., Rothman, D.S., Van Ruijven, B.J., van Vuuren, D.P. & Birkmann, J. (2017). “The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century”. Global Environmental Change 42, 169-180. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004.
• Pahl-Wostl, C. (2008). “Participation in Building Environmental Scenarios”. En: Alcamo, J. (Ed.): Environmental futures: The practice of environmental scenario analysis. Future long-term changes in global water resources driven by socioeconomic and climatic changes. Elsevier, Amsterdam.
• PHJ. (2015). Plan Hidrológico de la Cuenca del Júcar, Confederación Hidrográfica del Júcar. Retrieved from: http://www.chj.es/es-es/medioambiente/planificacionhidrologica /Paginas/PHC-2015-2021-Plan-Hidrologico-cuenca.aspx.
• Picketts, I.M., Curry, J., Déry, S.J. & Cohen, S.J. (2013). “Learning with practitioners: Climate change adaptation priorities in a Canadian community”. Climatic Change, 118(2), 321-337. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0653-8.
• Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D.P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O’Neill, B., Fujimori, S., Bauer, N., Calvin, K., et al. (2017). “The shared socioeconomic pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview”. Global Environmental Change, 42, 153-168. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009.
• Rinaudo, J.D. (2008). Evaluation économique du programme de mesures de gestion quantitative des ressources en eau dans l’Ouest de l’Hérault, Volume 1: Scénario tendanciel et analyse coût-efficacité pour l’usage agricole de l’eau, BRGM/RP -56143 – FR. Retrieved from: http://infoterre.brgm.fr/rapports/RP-56143-FR.pdf.
• Rinaudo, J.D., Maton, L., Terrason, I., Chazot, S., Richard-Ferroudji, A. & Caballero, Y. (2013). “Combining scenario workshop with modelling to assess future irrigation water demands”. Agricultural Water Management, 130, 103-112. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2013.08.016.
• Rothman, D.S. (2008). “A Survey of Environmental Scenarios”. En: Alcamo, J. (Ed.): Environmental futures: The practice of environmental scenario analysis. Future long-term changes in global water resources driven by socio-economic and climatic changes. (pp. 37-65). Elsevier, Amsterdam.
• Témez, J.R. (1977). Modelo matemático de transformación precipitación-aportación. ASINEL, 1977.
• Van Aalst, M.K., Cannon, T. & Burton, I. “Community level adaptation to climate change: The potential role of participatory community risk assessment”. Global environmental change-human and policy dimensions, 18, 165-179. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2007.06.002.
• Van Aalst, M.K., Cannon, T. & Burton, I. (2008). “Community level adaptation to climate change: The potential role of participatory community risk assessment”. Global Environmental Change, 18(1), 165-179. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2007.06.002.
• Van der Voorn, T., Pahl-Wostl, C. & Quist, J. (2012). “Combining backcasting and adaptive management for climate adaptation in coastal regions: A methodology and a South African case study”. Futures, 44, 346-364. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2011.11.003.
• Van Vuuren, D.P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard, K., Hurtt, G.C., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J.-F., Masui, T., Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., Smith, S.J. & Rose, S.K. (2011). “The representative concentration pathways: An overview”. Climatic Change, 109, 5-31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z.
• Van Vuuren, D.P., Kriegler, E. & O’Neill, B.C. et al. (2014). “A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: Scenario matrix architecture”. Climatic Change, 122(3), 373. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0906-1.
• Varela-Ortega, C., Blanco-Gutiérrez, I., Esteve, P., Bharwani, S., Fronzek, S. & Downing, T.E. (2016). “How can irrigated agriculture adapt to climate change? Insights from the Guadiana Basin in Spain”. Regional Environmental Change, 16, 59-70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0720-y.
• Vermeulen, S.J., Challinor, A.J., Thornton, P.K., Campbell, B.M., Eriyagama, N., Vervoort, J.M., Kinyangi, J., Jarvis, A., Läderach, P., Ramirez-Villegas, J., Nicklin, K.J., Hawkins, E. & Smith, D.R. (2013). “Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture”. PNAS, 110(21), 8357-8362.
• Vervoort, J., Thornton, P.K., Kristjanson, P., Förch, W., Ericksen, P.J., Kok, K., Ingram, J.S.I., Herrero, M., Palazzo, A., Helfgott, A.E.S., Wilkinson, A., Havlík, P., Mason-D’Croz, D. & Jost, C. (2014). “Challenges to scenario-guided adaptive action on food security under climate change”. Global Environmental Change, 28, 383-394. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.03.001.
• Walker, W.E., Haasnoot, M. & Kwakkel, J.H. (2013). “Adapt or perish: A review of planning approaches for adaptation under deep uncertainty”, Sustainability, 5(3), 955-979. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su5030955.
• Ward, F.A. & Pulido-Velázquez, M. (2008). “Water conservation in irrigation can increase water use”. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 105(47), 18215-18220. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0805554105.
• Westcott, R. (2004). “A scenario approach to demand forecasting”. Water Science & Technology Water Supply, 4(3), 45-55. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/ws.2004.0042. World Bank. (2010). The economics of adaptation to climate change, Washington: World Bank.