Spanish exit polls. Sampling error or nonresponse bias?

  1. Jose M. Pavía 1
  2. Elena Badal 1
  3. Belén García-Cárceles 1
  1. 1 Universidad de Valencia, España
Zeitschrift:
Revista internacional de sociología

ISSN: 0034-9712

Datum der Publikation: 2016

Ausgabe: 74

Nummer: 3

Art: Artikel

DOI: 10.3989/RIS.2016.74.3.043 DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openOpen Access editor

Andere Publikationen in: Revista internacional de sociología

Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung

Zusammenfassung

Existe un gran número de ejemplos de predicciones inexactas obtenidas a partir tanto de encuestas pre-electorales como de encuestas a pie de urna a lo largo del mundo. La presencia de tasas de no-respuesta diferencial entre distintos tipos de electores ha sido la principal razón esgrimida para justificar las proyecciones erróneas en las encuestas a pie de urna. En problemas de inferencia rara vez es posible comparar estimaciones y valores reales. Las predicciones electorales son una excepción. La comparación entre estimaciones y resultados finales puede realizarse una vez los votos han sido contabilizados. En este trabajo, examinamos los datos brutos recogidos en siete encuestas a pie de urna realizadas en España y testamos la hipótesis de que los datos recolectados en cada punto de muestreo puedan ser considerados una muestra aleatoria de los resultados realmente registrados en el correspondiente colegio electoral. Conocer la respuesta a esta pregunta es relevante para analistas y encuestadores electorales, ya que, si se rechaza la hipótesis, las deficiencias de los datos recogidos deberían ser subsanadas en concordancia. Los analistas podrían mejorar la calidad de sus estimaciones mediante la implementación de estrategias de corrección local. En nuestro estudio encontramos una fuerte evidencia de errores ajenos al muestreo en las encuestas a pie de urna en España y constatamos la importancia del contexto político. El sesgo de no-respuesta es mayor en elecciones polarizadas y en un clima de violencia o presión.

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Support from the Spanish Ministry of Economics and Competitiveness through project CSO2013-43054-R is also acknowledged.

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