Opportunistic political cycles and policiesnew evidence for Spanish municipalities based on a Bayesian approach
- Forte Deltell, Anabel
- Balaguer Coll, María Teresa
- Brun Martos, María Isabel
- Tortosa Ausina, Emili
Éditorial: Universitat de Girona = Universidad de Gerona
Année de publication: 2014
Pages: 54
Congreso: Encuentro de Economía Pública (21. 2014. Girona)
Type: Communication dans un congrès
Résumé
This paper analyzes the effect of public spending on the probability of municipal reelection of Spanish local governments during the 2000�2007 period, using Bayesian techniques. The results indicate that, in general, increases in local government spending positively impact on the chances of reelection of local governments. Moreover, the capital expenditure in the early years of the electoral cycle affects positively to the reelection probability and the electorate rewards increases in current expenditures in the period before elections. The use of Bayesian techniques is particularly interesting, since results are not boiled down to a summary effect such as the average; on the contrary, it shows exactly how a given covariate affects the probability of being reelected.