Identifying Key Predictors of Recidivism among Offenders Attending a Batterer Intervention Programa Survival Analysis

  1. Marisol Lila 1
  2. Manuel Martín-Fernández 1
  3. Enrique Gracia 1
  4. Juan J. López-Ossorio 2
  5. José L. González 2
  1. 1 University of Valencia, Spain
  2. 2 Ministry of the Interior, Spain
Revista:
Psychosocial Intervention

ISSN: 1132-0559

Año de publicación: 2019

Volumen: 28

Número: 3

Páginas: 157-167

Tipo: Artículo

DOI: 10.5093/PI2019A19 DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openAcceso abierto editor

Otras publicaciones en: Psychosocial Intervention

Resumen

Las estrategias para reducir la violencia contra la mujer en las relaciones de pareja pueden dirigirse a diferentes objetivos. Los programas de intervención para agresores de pareja son uno de los principales acercamientos para su tratamiento. El resultado más utilizado para la evaluación de la efectividad de estos programas es la reincidencia. Los esfuerzos para incrementar la efectividad de los programas de intervención para agresores de pareja en reducir la reincidencia deberían centrarse en las variables predictoras clave de este resultado. El objetivo de este estudio fue identificar los predictores clave de la reincidencia oficial a partir de un amplio conjunto de variables obtenidas a partir de una muestra de hombres participando por mandato judicial en un programa de intervención para agresores de pareja (N = 393), con un periodo de seguimiento de entre 0 y 69 meses. Con este objetivo, se realizó un análisis de supervivencia utilizando cuatro conjuntos de variables: variables individuales, variables relacionales y contextuales, variables relativas a la violencia y variables relativas al proceso de intervención. Para incluir simultáneamente todas las variables en el análisis, se estimó un modelo de regresión de Cox utilizando ALASSO (adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator). De un conjunto de ochenta y nueve variables, seis fueron seleccionadas como predictores clave: abandono del programa, riesgo de violencia futura contra otras personas, exposición a violencia familiar, estatus de inmigrante, acumulación de eventos vitales estresantes e ira rasgo. El área bajo la curva ROC (receiving operator characteristic) fue .808, indicando una buena predicción del modelo. Los predictores clave de la reincidencia identificados en este estudio deberían ser considerados por los profesionales e investigadores en el ámbito de la intervención con agresores de pareja para mejorar sus estrategias de evaluación e intervención. Asimismo, se discuten las implicaciones prácticas para futuras investigaciones.

Información de financiación

This research was supported by the Spanish Ministry for Health, Consumer Affairs and Social Welfare’s National Drug Plan (PND2018/021) and the University of Valencia (UV-INV-AE18-779244). Manuel Martín-Fernández was supported by the FPI program of the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (BES-2015-075576).

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