The euro effect on tradeevidence in gravity equations using panel cointegration techniques

Résumé

In this paper we present new evidence on the effect of the Euro on trade. We use a data set containing all bilateral combinations in a panel of 26 countries covering the period 1967-2008. We estimate the equation using two sets of variables: a standard one and a second one built according to the criticisms stated by Baldwin and Taglioni (2006). We implement a new generation of tests that allow us to solve some of the problems derived from the non-stationary nature of the data usually present in the macroeconomic variables used in gravitational equations (GDP, trade). To this aim we use some panel tests that account for the presence of cross-section dependence as well as discontinuities in the non-stationary panel data series. We test for cointegration between the variables using panel cointegration tests, especially the ones proposed by Banerjee and Carrión-i-Silvestre (2004, 2010). We also efficiently estimate the long-run relationships using the CUP-BC and CUP-FM estimators proposed in Bai et al. (2009). The results obtained are in line with those of Bun and Klaassen (2007). We argue that the creation of the European Monetary Union is best interpreted as a culmination of a series of policy changes that have been increasing economic integration in Europe during over four decades.