A comparison of parametric models for mortality graduation. Application to mortality data of the Valencia Region

  1. Sala Garrido, Ramón
  2. Montes Suay, Francisco
  3. Debón Aucejo, Ana María
Revista:
Sort: Statistics and Operations Research Transactions

ISSN: 1696-2281

Ano de publicación: 2005

Volume: 29

Número: 2

Páxinas: 269-287

Tipo: Artigo

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Outras publicacións en: Sort: Statistics and Operations Research Transactions

Resumo

HolaThe parametric graduation of mortality data has as its objective the satisfactory estimation of the death rates based on mortality data but using an age-dependent function whose parameters are adjusted from the crude rates obtainable directly from the data. This paper proposes a revision of the most commonly used parametric methods and compares the results obtained with each of them when they are applied to the mortality data for the Valencia Region. As a result of the comparison, we conclude that the Gompertz-Makeham functions estimated by means of generalized linear models lead to the best results. Our working method is of additional interest for being applicable to mortality data for a wide range of ages from any geographical conditions, allowing us to select the most appropriate life table for the case in hand. MSC: 62P05 Keywords: Gompertz-Makeham functions, Heligman and Pollard¿s laws, parametric graduation HolaLa gradualitzaci¿o param`etrica de dades de mortalitat t¿e com a objectiu l¿estimaci¿o correcta de taxes de mort a partir de les dades de mortalitat mitjanc¿ant una funci¿o que dep`en de l¿edat, els par`ametres de la qual s¿ajusten a partir de les taxes ¿brutes¿ de mortalitat obtingudes directament de les dades. Aquest article presenta una revisi¿o dels models param`etrics m¿es habituals i la seua aplicaci¿o a les dades de mortalitat del Pa¿ýs Valenci`a. Com a conseq¿u`encia de la comparaci¿o dels resultats obtinguts amb els diferents models, es conclou que les funcions de Gompertz-Makeham estimades mitjanc¿ant models lineals generalitzats condueixen als millors resultats. El m`etode de treball que es presenta t¿e inter`es suplementari per ser aplicable a dades de mortalitat per a un ampli rang d¿edats i per a qualsevol `ambit geogr`afic, permetent en cada cas seleccionar la millor taula de vida. Paraules clau: funcions de Gompertz-Makeham, lleis de Heligman i Pollard¿s, gradualitzaci ¿o param`etrica

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